The Face and Future of Bellator MMA

Last night was the culmination of a tournament that went exactly as Bellator had hoped.  Ryan Bader, their top fighter, in his prime, and already the Light Heavyweight champion, went over and took out the greatest of all time and MMA icon Fedor Emelianenko; and did so ludicrously fast.

Fedor would of given Bellator their most iconic fighter ever as a world champion, but Bader since debuting in Bellator has been unstoppable, going 5-0 in his fights.  He’s faced off with Phil Davis (Split Decision), Linton Vassell (TKO), Muhammed Lawal (TKO) and Matt Mitrione in a lopsided victory (unanimous decision).  It’s clear he’s Bellator’s top guy and at 35 looks to be that guy for some time.

While Bader captured the Heavyweight crown at Bellator 214, another heavyweight was making his MMA debut.  The soon-to-be 37 year old Jake Hager (Jack Swagger), dominated his first MMA opponent J.W. Kiser by taking him to the ground and getting a tap via arm-triangle-choke.  Hager is of course a former WWE Champion and a renowned wrestler at Oklahoma University.  His debut marked a big opportunity for Bellataor to cash in on name value.  His debut in MMA went better than Brock Lesnar’s or CM Punks, though Hager didn’t face someone of the quality of Lesnar’s first opponent, Frank Mir.

Bellator also has other prime-time stars, like 29 year old Rory McDonald, the current Welterweight Champion.  He went 8-4 in the UFC, but came up short against Robbie Lawler in a Welterweight title fight.  He then left UFC for Bellator, where he beat Douglas Lima by unanimous decision for the Welterweight title.  He then came up short against 33 year-old Gegard Mousasi for the Middleweight Championship.  Yet, despite his loss, with his age, UFC exposure and talent the Canadian McDonald is looked at as a top guy in the promotion.  Scrubs don’t get double title opportunities.

On the female side of things, the swell of support continues to grow for Ilima-Lei MacFarlane.  She won the Women’s Flyweight title in her native Hawaii and is being promoted along with McDonald for a double headline show at Bellator 220 in April.  She’ll face off with Veta Arteaga for the Flyweight title, and MacDonald will face off with former UFC mainstay Jon Fitch.

There’s also young up-and-comer Aaron Pico, who has become a knockout artist.  However, the youngster took a devastating loss against 33 year-old Henry Corrales.  The loss hurt Pico’s standing, but many believe he’ll learn from the loss, as he was swinging with reckless abandon in hopes of securing another KO finish.

Not the biggest names in the history of MMA, and one could argue Fedor was needed more at the top of the company as heavyweight champion due to his mystique and legacy.  Yet, that wasn’t what happened, so we need to move on.

So we look at the roster to see who else is available, and that’s where we hit some snags.  Women’s Featherweight champion Julia Budd shares the same issue with Bader, they’re both 35 but doesn’t carry his legacy or name value and is already in her mid-30’s.   Her two biggest fights, against Amanda Nunes and Ronda Rousey, were both first round losses, and she isn’t known for having exciting finishes in her victories.  It should be noted those two loses against Nunes and Rousey are her only losses and has a kick-boxing win over Gina Carano in 2005, but she hasn’t faced much top tier competition since.  She is respected though, as MMA Rising has her ranked as the #3 female Featherweight in the world, just behind Nunes, and Cyborg.  She’s the eternal bridesmaid though of Featherweight competitors.  She could dominate her division but until she gets another marquee fight, it won’t matter.

Then we look at men’s Bantamweight Champion Darrion Caldwell.  The weight-class itself  isn’t know for it’s big name value at the moment, and with the UFC seeking to end the men’s Flyweight, we’ll see what happens with the Bantamweight title.  T.J. Dillashaw has made a name for himself in the UFC, but even his crop of talented opponents don’t have big name value.  That’s Caldwell’s biggest issue.  A Bellator mainstay, he hasn’t become a mainstream name like other MMA fighters, and hasn’t had any big prize fights under his resume.  The only way to boost Caldwell is to put him int he ring with guys of established value to boost his own.

That’s also the problem for Lightweight Champion Michael Chandler and and Featherweight Champion Patricioi Freire.  Both men’s biggest name they’ve fought in Bellator has been Benson Henderson, the former UFC Lightweight Champion.

Here’s the good though, all of these men are still young enough to get those big prize fights though.  They just need Scott Coker to land a few lighter-weight guys of equal name value of a Frank Mir and Rampage Jackson.  Notice I’m saying ‘name-value’ and not ‘talent’.  Why?  Because the Bellator roster IS talented.  They just are lacking notoriety and headline catching fights.  That’s why win or lose, Bellator wanted Bader to fight Fedor in the finals; as it gave Bader a headline/super-fight opponent that will either make Bader’s legacy or re-establish Fedor as the top force in MMA.  Either way Bellator won.

Now Middleweight Champ Gegard Mousasi is a different beast, as he’s fought and beaten a lot of guys. He’s a four time world champion, winning the DREAM middle and light heavy weight championship titles, the Strikeforce light heavyweight championships and now is the Bellator Middleweight Champion.  He’s faced off with Vitor Belfort, Uriah Hall, Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida, Keith Jardine, Mo Lawal and Mark Hunt, winning four, losing three and having one draw.  The problem with Mousasi, who also repelled McDonald just last year, is his inconsistency in big fights.  He’s just over the 50% mark when it comes to sustaining wins against top talent.

Prize fighters hopefully have a much higher rate of success.  He is on an eight fight win-streak and an eventual rematch against Machida looks to be on the horizon.  Machida himself is on a three-fight win streak and just beat Rafael Cavalho in his debut for Bellator.  The problem with Mousasi’s situation is honestly the depth of the middleweight division in regards to name value.  There is the twenty-seven year old, Russian Anatoly Tokov who has a 27-2 record.  Yet, his resume is built mostly through Rizin in Japan, M-1 in Russia and various smaller outlets.  An up-and-comer yes, but a big name main eventer? Not yet.  Curiously, Bellator updates their roster on their homepage frequently.  Yet, Royce Gracie is still listed as a middleweight competitor despite not fighting since 2016.   Is the 52 year old still on the companies radar?  He’d certainly be an interesting name if he returned, but that seems almost like a pipe dream.

That is where the Bellator’s problem lies though.  They have plenty of name value, but it’s all in two or three divisions and they’re all pushing or over 40.  In the Heavyweight Division, Rampage Jackson, Cheick Kongo, Chael Sonnen, Fedor, Roy Nelson, Mirko Cro Cop, Frank Mir, and Wanderlie Silva are all 40, except for the 39 year old Mir; and Mir turns 40 in May.  They’re also leaning hard on 40 year old, unproven headliner Matt Mitrione, who spent a few years in the NFL as a practice squad guy, and then went through the Ultimate Fighter, where he then had an uneven career in the UFC following the reality show.

They do have young talent though, like undefeated 33 year old Vitaly Minakov, who has Kongo up next, in what should be a heavyweight championship contender fight.  Then there’s 13-2 Justin Wren, known for his unique physique and almost mountain-man like hairstyle.  So the Heavyweight division has a lot of name value, plus some young talent.  Also, don’t forget Jake Hager, though he is soon to be 37.   It should be noted thought that Wren hasn’t fought in over a year and his future seems up in the air.

The Light Heavyweight division though is in shambles.  Bader is the clear number one in that division (and heavyweight), yet besides the 34 year old Phil Davis, there isn’t anyone who’s in their prime and has any name value.  You got King Mo, but he’s another bridesmaid, but unlike Budd, Lawal hasn’t won big titles in recent years.  He’s a two time tournament champ; once in Bellator winning the 2013 Summer Series for Light Heavyweights, and the 2015 Rizin Heavyweight Grand Prix.  He’s also held the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship.  Though, it should be noted he hasn’t lived up to that victory since.

We know Middleweight is bare bones, just like Light Heavyweight but the Welterweight Division in Bellator is loaded.  You have in-their-prime stars like Douglas Lima, up and comers like undefeated prospects, 31 year old Michael Page,  30 year old Neiman Gracie and 25 year old Joey Davis.  They also have Champ Rory MacDonald, and UFC vet Jon Fitch, as well as the son of Randy Couture, Ryan.  After starting off strong, going into Bellator with an 8-3 record, he’s gone 4-3 since joining.  Though he did just beat Haim Gozali in November.

The Lightweight is also pretty deep, with J.J. Ambrose, champ Michael Chandler, Benson Henderson, Ryan Scope, Kimbo Slice’s son Baby Slice, and Goiti Yamauchi.

The best bet for Bellator is to readjust their competitors and spread the name value around.

Chael Sonnen has fought in three different classes and would be better served in the Light-Heavyweight Division, helping bolster that lackluster group.  Same for Rampage and Silva.  Those three names bolster the division some, allowing for match up’s with Bader, Davis and Lawal in marque bouts, while giving guy s like Vadim Nemkov, and Jared Trice to build a reputation.   While it may not cause the best bouts, Bader should take big name after big name on in the Light-Heavyweight division.  It’s always possible Bader vacates the Light Heavyweight Championship and not the Heavyweight Championship (assuming he vacates either one), but Bader is better at Light Heavyweight.  Yet, the Grand Prix was to crown a new Heavyweight Champion, so him vacating that belt after winning it doens’t make much sense either…It’s a fluid situation I’m sure.

If Fedor agrees to more fights, with Mirko, Vitaly Minakov, Mitrione, Mir, Javy Ayala and Hager, you could possible rebound pretty well.  Especially if Hager develops fast.

And that’s ultimately where Bellator is compared to the UFC.  Bellator is trying to build their divisions from within.  Acquiring young talent and giving guys with something to prove a chance.  Gone are the ‘freak show’ fights that plagued the promoting eight-nine years ago.  While there is an over reliance on over the hill names, those are the guys that bring casuals in to hopefully help build up new names.  The problem isn’t the fact they have a dozen-plus fighters in their 40’s, the problem is they’re all in one or two divisions it seems.

With Bader, Macdonald, and MacFarlane, the company has their presents secured, as long as they keep winning that is.