We are two days out from the second biggest, and arguably the best show every year; The January 4th Dome Show aka Wrestle Kingdom.

This year marks the 26th year this event has been around, and the 12th under it’s Wrestle Kingdom banner. That first show was a landmark show for NJPW, ushering in 50,000 fans and showcasing names like Scott Norton, Lex Luger, Masahiro Chono, the Steiners, Sting, Great Muta, Vader and a main event that saw a title unification between Riki Choshu and Tatsumi Fujinami for both the Greatest 18 Championship and the IWPG Heavyweight championship respectively.

Now, almost three decades later we’re set to make more history with the event.

NJPW’s booking is often times predictable but there’s a method to their madness. The under card titles change hands often at this event, and established stars (usually, *cough cough Muta*) put over the newbies. So let’s look at this card and pick the winners.

IWPG Junior Heavyweight Tag Team Championships
The Young Bucks vs. Roppongi 3K(c)
– I would love to see the Buck’s win, Ropoongi’s manager Rocky Romero enter the ring and attack his team for losing. The idea would see Alex Kozlov return to wrestling but that doesn’t seem likely. R3K has had the longest title reign since the Bucks in the summer of 2016. When did they lose it? Last year’s Wrestle Kingdom. But here’s the thing, besides 11 and 10, the title hadn’t switched hands at Wrestle Kingdom since the 6th one, back in 2012, when Finn Balor and Ryuske Taguchi won the belts. And before that, it was three years prior. So yes, the odds of the champions retaining are good. With R3K’s surging popularity and the Young Bucks grueling schedule, I’d be shocked to see R3K lose the belts this year.
Predicted Winner: Roppongi 3K

NEVER Openweight 6-Man Tag Team Championship – Gauntlet
Bullet Club (Fale,Tama Tonga, Tanga Loa) (c) vs. Chaos (Bereta, Ishii, Yano) vs. Elgin and War Machine, vs. Suzuki-gun (Taichi, Iizuka, Sabre jr.) and Taguchi Japan (Juice, Taguchi, Togi Makabe)
– The Bullet Club have never had a perfect Dome Show event. I fully expect that trend to continue with the Bullet Club dropping the belts here. The team of Elgin and War Machine won’t win with War Machine apparently WWE bound and Elgin’s reputation taking a beating, Taguchi Japan just doesn’t seem like they’re a team that NJPW is fully behind, so that really leaves Suzuki-gun and Chaos. I really think Suzuki-gun is taking it.
Predicted Winner: Suzuki-gun

Singles Match
Cody Rhodes vs. Kota Ibushi
– For now the ROH/NJPW partnership is very much alive, but with NJPW’s Don Callis now co-running IMPACT Wrestling, who knows what the future holds? That being said, Kota is a freelancer and Cody has direct ties to NJPW, so it makes more sense to see Cody go over here. Also, keep in mind the brewing tensions between Rhodes and Kenny Omega have to boil over at some point…
Predicted Winner: Cody Rhodes

IWGP Tag Team Championships
Los Ingobernables de Japon vs. Killer Elite Squad (c)
– WrestleKingdom saw new tag team champions crowned every time for the last four years. However, the last time the champions retained at Wrestle Kingdom happened to include the Killer Elite Squad. However they also lost the belts at the even too, so sometimes nothing is connected and it’s all random chaos. That being said, I expect to see EVIL and Sanada as tag champs, despite my wishes. I love Davey Boy Jr. and want to see him retain but Sanada has to eventually become what everything thinks he is and this is as good of a time as any. I mean shit, four other promotions have tried to get Sanada over. If he’s ever going to be a main eventer, we have to see what he can do in a starring role.
Predicted Winner: Los Ingobernables de Japon

NEVER Openweight Championship
Hirooki Goto vs. Minoru Suzuki(c)
– Goto has been with NJPW since he debuted in the Junior’s division back in 2003, and Suzuki is about to hit 50. Even though he’s still super over, and in shockingly good shape and health for his age, it’s time to move on from Suzuki as someone the company continues to rely on in these types of matches, so I fully expect to see Goto get the win.
Predicted Winner: Hirooki Goto

IWGP Junior Heavyweight Championship – Four-way Match
Hiromu Takahashi vs. Kushida vs. Will Osprey vs. Marty Scurll
– Osprey is going freelance in the states, and I fully expect to see that happen in Japan as well, and NJPW doesn’t put titles on freelancers usually. Kushida remains a treat but his stitch is pretty overused. We’ve seen the title change hands the last four years at this event, and with the surge in popularity for Hiromu thanks in part to his therapy cat Daryl, Hiromu makes the most since to see leave with the belt.
Predicted Winner: Hiromu Takahashi

IWGP Intercontinental Championship
Jay White vs. Hiroshi Tanahashi(c)
– Jay White has less charisma than Roman Reigns. His look reminds me of a kid from 2003 who hangs around Hot Topic a lot, talking about how he lives in the moment but his parents live in (*insert city name here*). He’s lame. But Tanahashi has a bum…well everything. He needs time off and has needed time off for about 8 months now. White wins here because Tanahashi is a trooper and needs a break.
Predicted Winner: Jay White

IWGP United States Championship – No DQ
Chris Jericho vs. Kenny Omega
– There are only a handful of times in the 26 years that the main event was not the IWGP Championship and there are pretty good reasons for all of them:

Dome Show 1993
Genichiro Tenryu vs. Riki Choshu – Biggest feud in the company, against biggest name in the company (Choshu.

Dome Show 1994
Genichiro Tenryu vs. Antonio Inoki – The greatest name in Japanese pro wrestling history began his retirement tour, you main event him.

Dome Show 2002
Yuji Nagata vs. Jun Akiyama(c) – The match was for Pro Wrestling NOAH’s title, the GHC Championship. The IWGP Champion at the time, Kazuyuki Fujita, couldn’t compete at the time and the title was vacated.

Wrestle Kingdom I
Keiji Mutoh and Masahiro Chono vs. Tencozy (Tenzan and Kojima) – It was booked due to Shinya Hashimoto’s passing. He made up the legendary Three Musketeers with Chono and Mutoh, and this was their way of paying homage to their fallen friend.

And finally

Dome Show 2005 and Wrestle Kingdom VIII
Shinsuke Nakamura vs. Hiroshi Tanahashi – Tenzan was the champion at the time and wasn’t seen as a big draw back in 2005 but Nakamura and Tanahashi were very popular with the younger fans, and since Tenzan was booked in a non-title match, it made sense. Then you have 2014. Nakamura and Tanahashi were more popular than the men fighting for the IWGP title on that night. So they ended the night with the Intercontinental Championship.

So when people ask a question like “why isn’t Jericho and Omega going to headline!?” Um, because it’s not for the title? The United States title came together almost last minute, and features two foreigners in the match. Something a Japanese audience will not be down for. While the feud is hot, it’s hot for us in the States. Jericho hasn’t been in NJPW in nearly 20 years, and it makes no sense to give him the main slot over the man who has held the IWGP Championship longer than anyone in a single reign. Jericho and Omega will be fun but it won’t be what fans think it’ll be. Omega wins, mostly because Jericho isn’t guaranteed to stick around.
Predicted Winner: Kenny Omega

IWGP Heavyweight Championship
Tetsuya Naito vs. Kazuchika Okada (c)
– It was the “snub” in 2014 that allowed Naito to go heel and up his profile.
Since then he’s become one of the biggest heels in NJPW today. Okada only has just had one of the best years on record as Champ, touring around the world with the title and holding it longer than anyone else in a single reign, and is (at press time) two days away from breaking the record of combined days held, surpassing Tanahashi. The possibility of Okada losing the title the night he breaks the combined days record is high, but I could see him keeping it to 600 days in a row as champion. But we’ll see. Right now I’m flip flopping. I said on Sunday that it’d be Okada but now I’m leaning towards Naito. However, there’s one thing to remember: the champ don’t lose on Dome Show!

In the 26 years, there have been 24 IWGP Championship matches (all singles matches FYI), and in those 24 defenses, there’s only been SEVEN* times the title changed hands. The last time that happened was in 2011, when Tanahashi defeated Satoshi Kojima for the title. Not just that, but Okada is 3-0 when he’s defending the IWGP Title at the Dome Show. Less than thirty percent of men have won the title from the champion at this event, and then you combine that with Okada’s records for most days as champion in one reign and the most days combined, plus his 3-0 record as champ…I can’t pick against Okada. NJPW books their stuff to make wrestlers seem like gods. So yes, I see Okada retaining.
Predicted Winner: Kazuchika Okada

*There’s technically been 8 times the title changed hands, but the 8th time in question was where the title was vacant.